What are the worst possible scenarios in the conflict between Iran and Israel?
The unprecedented military confrontation between Israel and Iran has been continuing for four days, as Israel continues to carry out raids, most of which were military sites in the Islamic Republic, which are received with a series of missile strikes that hit "vital sites", according to Tehran.
After years of confrontation with the agency and limited operations, Israel and Iran entered a direct confrontation, the first began with a surprise attack on the Islamic Republic last Friday, killing military leaders, nuclear scientists and civilians, including Iranian women and children, according to Tehran.
On the other hand, Tehran began, since Friday night, with batches of ballistic missiles and enlightenings towards Israel, killing mostly civilians, as Israel says.
Pictures showed destruction in the two countries due to raids and strikes.
At the present time, it appears that the fighting between Israel and Iran is limited to only the two countries. At the United Nations and other places, many calls for self -control were issued.
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But what if these calls do not find listening ears? What if the fighting escalated and expanded?
Below are the worst possible scenarios.
The United States is involved
Despite the American denial, Iran clearly believes that the American forces supported - with at least an implicit support - the Israeli attacks.
Iran may resort to hitting American targets across the Middle East, such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the region. Although the forces affiliated with Iran, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have declined their strength significantly, the militias loyal to it in Iraq are still armed and present.
The United States expected the possibility of such attacks, and withdrew some of its members as a precaution. In its public messages, Washington has strongly warned Iran of the consequences of any attack on American targets.
But what if an American citizen was killed in Tel Aviv, for example, or anywhere else?
Donald Trump may find himself forced to move, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has always been accused of drawing to drag the United States to his battle against Iran.
Military analysts say that the United States alone has the bombers and supernatural bombs for the ability to penetrate the deepest Iranian nuclear facilities, especially the Fordo facility.
Trump has promised his supporters from the "Make America Great again" movement that he would not fight any "wars" in the Middle East. However, many Republicans support the government of Israel and its vision that the time has come to seek to change the regime in Tehran.
But if the United States becomes an active party to fight, this will be a tremendous escalation that may have long -term and destructive consequences.
Gulf states involved
If Iran fails to harm the military targets and other protected sites well inside Israel, it may resort to directing its missiles towards more fragile targets in the Gulf region, especially those countries that Iran believes has helped and supported its enemies over the years.
There are many goals related to energy and infrastructure in the region. Remember that Iran was accused of bombing Saudi oil fields in 2019, and its Houthi militia targeted targets in the UAE in 2022.
Since then, relations have witnessed a kind of reconciliation between Iran and some countries of the region.
But these countries host American air bases, and some - unannounced - helped to defend Israel from an Iranian missile attack last year.
If the Gulf region is attacked, it may be demanded that American warplanes intervene to defend it, along with the defense of Israel.
Israel's failure to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities
What if the Israeli attack fails? And what if Iranian nuclear facilities were very deep and well protected? And what if 400 kg of enriched uranium is not destroyed by 60 percent, which is nuclear fuel that does not separate it from the degree of fertilization necessary for weapons except a small step, which is enough to make about ten nuclear bombs?
It is believed that this uranium may be hidden in deep secret mines. Israel may have killed some nuclear scientists, but there are no bombs capable of destroying Iranian knowledge and experience.
And what if the Israeli attack persuaded the Iranian leadership that the only way to deter more attacks is to accelerate as much as possible to obtain a nuclear capacity?
And what if the new military leaders at the decision table were more reckless and less cautious than their ancestors who were killed?
At the minimum, this may force Israel to launch more attacks, which may link the area with a continuous episode of strikes and counter -strikes, and the Israelis have a harsh phrase to describe this strategy; They call it "grass mow".
Global economic shock
The price of oil is already a sharp rise.
What if Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would restrict the oil movement more?
What if on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis in Yemen intensified their attacks on navigation in the Red Sea? They are the last Iranian allies of the agents, and they have a history of unexpected behavior and a willingness to bear high risk.
Many countries around the world are already suffering from a crisis in living costs, and the high oil prices will increase inflation in a global economic system that originally suffers from the burdens of the tariff war warfare launched by Trump.
And do not forget that the largest beneficiary of the high oil prices is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will witness the flow of billions of dollars to Kremlin's treasures, to finance his war against Ukraine.
A vacuum caused by the fall of the Iranian regime
And what if Israel succeeded in achieving its long -term goal by overthrowing the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran?
Netanyahu claims that his primary goal is to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities, but he explained in his statement on Friday that his broader goal includes changing the system.
He said to "the proud Iranian people" that his attack "paves the way for you to obtain your freedom" from what he described as "the evil and oppressive regime."
The overthrow of the Iranian government may find a positive resonance with some parties in the region, especially among some Israelis. However, what emptiness that this might leave? What are the unexpected consequences that may result from it? How will the internal conflict shape in Iran be?
Many still remember what happened in Iraq and Libya when the strong central rule was dropped in them.
Therefore, a lot will depend on how this war has evolved in the coming days.
How, and with any intensity, will Iran respond? How much restraint is that, if the United States can exercise on Israel?
A lot will depend on the answer to these two questions.
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