What are the reasons for declining population increase rates in Egypt?
"I will only have after five years of marriage, I do not want to take responsibility for a child now, nor I want to overcome difficult beginnings and ensure the ability to provide the needs of the child who is currently charged with," thus expressed Muhammad Walid, 32 years old, who is married recently, about his opinion on having children after marriage.
The idea of Mohamed Walid is now popular with many newly married young men or who are about to marry in Egypt, not only because of the economic conditions and increased burdens of living and the costs of marriage, but also because of the many advertising and religious campaigns organized by the Egyptian state to urge citizens to organize birth control and control birth rates.
Kholoud, 22, agrees with the idea of birth control and postponement of childbearing after marriage, and tells BBC that she and her fiancé agreed to "having a child or two children only, and childbearing will begin after three years of marriage."
Kholoud added that she touched her friends with the idea of reducing the number of children, and that childbearing after several years of marriage, in response to government invitations that are adopted by clerics in mosques and private lessons, and also to "overcome the difficulty of the beginnings and not reach the worst end."
Perhaps these ideas were a significant decline in the numbers of births in Egypt during the last period, no matter how different the reasons behind them, but they are compatible with the current Egyptian government's directions in urging citizens to organize the family and reduce the number of children, and warn of the risks of population increase on state resources and development programs.
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According to the Egyptian Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics, Egypt witnessed a noticeable decline in the daily birth rate to reach 5,165 births compared to 5,385 births during the arrival period to 107 million people, or 220 births per day, and 5,599 born to reach 106 million people.
Dr. Hossam Abdel Ghaffar, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Health and Population, commented that the population of Egypt reached 108 million at home, an increase of one million people within 287 days, from November 2, 2024 to August 16, 2025.
Abdel Ghaffar said in an official statement, that this time period is about 19 days longer compared to the period that took the increase from 106 to 107 million people, which is 268 days, which means slowing the rate of population increase.
These numbers indicate that this decline is not just a passing phenomenon, but rather an integrated government strategy, which was confirmed by Dr. Khaled Abdel Ghaffar, Deputy Prime Minister for Human Development and Minister of Health and Population, noting that the low rates of population increase came within the framework of the "National Population Strategy."
The Minister considered in an official statement that this "achievement" is part of the ongoing efforts of the Ministry of Health and Population in implementing the national population strategy, which aims to "control the rates of population increase and achieve sustainable development."
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Muhammad Ali strategy
The Egyptian state's interest in reducing the population and restraining the population increase was not the result of the current era. Rather, the regimes in Egypt have always been interested in the construction of the modern state during the era of Muhammad Ali Pasha. The governments attributed the lack of success of their development policies to an increase in the numbers of the parish, according to Dr. Muhammad Al -Imam, a professor of modern and contemporary history at Damanhour University.
The Imam told the BBC in Al -Jabarti in his book "The Wonders of Antiquities", explaining the high prices and the lack of housing by increasing the population, and the Egyptian thinker Ali Mubarak repeated the same interpretation in "reconciliation plans." Almost 100 years ago, the newspapers of "Al -Moqattam", "Al -Ahram", "Al -Akhbar" and "Al -Masry" have published articles calling for the masses to identify and organize the offspring so that the increase does not devour the surplus production.
The new Egyptian strategy, according to Dr. Sidra Al -Sheikh, a consultant gynecologist and obstetrician at the World Medical Center, includes field operations to enhance awareness programs, improve family planning services, and provide comprehensive health care.
Dr. Sidra, the consultant of women and obstetrics at Cairo University, also explained that the strategy included reducing government support for families by reducing the subsidized goods and reducing the number of beneficiaries of the ration cards, which led to many fears of families that the inability to bear the burdens of life, especially in light of the significant increase in inflation.
Nevin, who is married and has three children, is suffering from these concerns, and she tells BBC that she and her husband decided not to have more children, "after the prices rise significantly, and our inability to provide our basic needs."
Perhaps the inflation that struck Egypt over the past months has caused some to retreat from the idea of increasing children. The annual inflation rate reached 14.90 percent last June, and despite its decrease to 13.90 percent last July, the prices are still high and pressure on Egyptian families significantly.
Nevin added: "Although we live in Dakahlia Governorate, in the Delta of Egypt, and my husband is affordable and has a job and agricultural land, life has also become difficult and the costs of living are unlikely."
She explained that "the prices of everything are high, from vegetables, meat and even rice that we plant, in addition to the costs of treating children and their needs from diapers, for example, the price of one package rose to 400 pounds."
Change collective awareness
The recent statistical data revealed a noticeable decline in the average number of children for each family, which is scientifically known as the "total fertility rate", so that the fertility rate in Egypt decreased from 3.5 children per woman in 2014 to 2.8 children per woman in 2021, then to 2.41 children per woman in 2024, according to the data of the Information Center at the Ministry of Health.
However, there is a disparity between birth rates in Egypt according to the geographical distribution. The governorates of Upper Egypt (Assiut, Sohag, Qena, Minya, and Beni Suef) recorded the highest birth rates, while the Delta and Lower Egypt governorates (Port Said, Damietta, Dakahlia, Gharbia, and Alexandria) recorded the lowest rate, according to the report of the Ministry of Health.
This, according to Dr. Sidra, is due to the varying rates of education and the prevalence of societies in Upper Egypt for the customs, traditions and norms inherited around the children and that they are bonds and isolation, on economic and social problems. But she indicated that the percentage of education in the countryside has become great, especially among women.
In addition to the remarkable difference between the governorates of Lower Egypt, Cairo and Upper Egypt, with regard to the work and empowerment of women economically and socially, the proportions and numbers of working women are still few in Upper Egypt compared to the rest of the provinces, which makes them focus on having children, according to Dr. Sidra.
Religion and population
Religious awareness played a major role in the Egyptian government's strategy to confront the population increase, and the Al -Azhar Foundation, the advocates of the Ministry of Awqaf and even churches had an important role in dealing with this issue and organizing awareness campaigns in mosques, churches and health units that were mainly targeted women, which helped to achieve positive results, especially among women.
According to the Egyptian Central Bureau of Statistics, births decreased to 18.5 births per 1000 people in 2024, compared to about 19.4 births per 1000 people in 2023.
The natural population growth, which is the difference between births and deaths, also decreased by 7 percent to 1.359 million people in 2024 compared to 1.462 million in 2023.
Sheikh Muhammad Dahrouj, the Islamic preacher of the Egyptian Ministry of Endowments, and one of the graduates of the training program of the Ministry of Awqaf (thought leaders), tells us about his role in some of these campaigns organized by Kafr El -Sheikh Governorate to educate women about the danger of population increase and frequent reproduction, and the need to organize offspring.
He says that there are directives from the Ministry of Awqaf to constantly talk with citizens about spreading the correct awareness of family issues, and the importance of birth control in line with the purposes of Sharia, whether during the Friday sermon, or even in the lessons that are organized.
He emphasized the existence of a large response from citizens for these lessons and lectures, especially those that take place within the campaigns of (rotor sessions) that work within the presidential initiative (a decent life).
There was a great controversy in Egypt in previous periods about the confusion between birth control and birth control, and there was a refusal to call for childbearing because it contradicts the Sharia and contradicts the will of God.
Kholoud assured the BBC that she and her friends attended many religious lessons for marriage, and asked the Sheikh about her desire to postpone childbearing and only two children, so he assured her that this matter is "legitimate and permissible and does not contradict the Sharia."
Sheikh Dahrouj confirms that there is a difference between the "project" family and the identification of "rejected" offspring, and indicated that the organization aims to preserve the health of the mother, the family and society, indicating that they are in the Ministry of Awqaf are working to "fight false concepts and rumors related to childbearing issues."
The Egyptian Ministry of Endowments has prepared sermons to meet women directly, talking to them about sound education, caring for children, the impact of unorganized childbearing on the family, dealing with issues such as marriage of minors, early divorce, domestic violence, and its relationship to ignorance and lack of population awareness.
In churches, continuous sessions and awareness lessons are also taking place for Christians in Egypt to explain the goals of the Egyptian population strategy.
Osama Rifaat told the BBC that he and his wife attended lessons in the church in which doctors and priests were present about the danger of the population increase in the Egyptian national security, and the need to identify the offspring.
Osama decided not to have more children and only three, and added: "Life is difficult for everyone and most importantly I have to teach my children well, and private education has become expensive, and I seek to ensure that they enter good private schools, whatever the cost."
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